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If there's a common trope about "futurism," it's that it gets everything wrong. From jetpacks to vacations on the Moon, any discussion of futurism in broader culture very quickly turns into a listing of the various crazy things that "futurists"...
Technology foresight has been stuck for the last 10-20 years; we need to be paying more attention to social-cultural futurism....
Foresight is not about making predictions. Rather, it's a tool for identifying dynamics of change, in part by exploring the implications of those changes. This is a point I've made often enough that even I'm sick of it --...
Not literally, of course. But if we think about the future as something that infects us, we gain a new perspective on our world. Human civilization has a weak immune system when it comes to futures. We can sometimes recognize...
In every foresight or forecasting exercise, there are two overarching tensions: The more certain and detailed the forecast, the more people will accept it and believe it to be useful. The more certain and detailed the forecast, the less likely...
Why worry about tomorrow? After all, according to one of our most respected thinkers, "always in motion is the future." It's a reasonable question. Consistently accurate predictions about interconnected complex systems are functionally impossible, at least at any real level...
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